Africa’s political and security outlook for 2026 is marked by deep uncertainty, shaped by internal governance challenges and a rapidly shifting global order. From contested elections and youth-led movements to fragile states and ongoing regional conflicts, African leaders are under increasing pressure to balance sovereignty, stability, and development amid declining external accountability and intensifying global power competition.
Speaking to VOC News, Executive Director of the Democracy Development Programme (DDP) and honorary senior research lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Dr Paul Kariuki, said the year has begun with cautious optimism but warned that time is running out for meaningful change.
“At the beginning of the year, the only thing carrying us is hope, that the lessons gained from last year’s challenges have provided a platform for us to do our business differently as African people,” Kariuki said.
He stressed that failure to seize the opportunities presented by global shifts would leave the continent trapped in a cycle of stagnation.
“If we do not make the most of these opportunities to emancipate ourselves economically, politically, and socially, our story is not going to change.”
Kariuki added that while optimism remains, the path ahead is uncertain. “It’s still early days. The road is not linear or smooth, making it a challenging route. But the hope is that we build our resilience and do better than we did last year.”
He identified between five and seven critical areas likely to shape Africa’s trajectory in 2026, with election management remaining one of the most contentious. “Elections on our continent have remained an ongoing challenge because of how they are managed and because of incumbents’ desire to hold on to power,” he said, citing concerns over potential term extensions and the continued risk of military coups. While some countries present opportunities to consolidate democratic gains through public participation, others face resistance and instability.
Economic reform is another key battleground. Kariuki pointed to renewed international interest in Africa’s potential, particularly in renewable energy, mining, trade, and manufacturing. However, he noted that progress has been hampered by the slow ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and limited regional integration.
“We still see intra-continental trade being constrained, which affects migration, economic opportunity, and even political stability,” he said. Kariuki emphasised that stronger African Union leadership and faster implementation of regional agreements are essential to unlocking sustainable growth and reducing security risks across the continent.
Listen to the full interview below:
VOC News
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