By Daanyaal Matthews
Palestinian resistance group Hamas has elected Yahya Sinwar to take the position of its political chief following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. The appointment of Yahya Sinwar is rather unsurprising given his stature within the organization and in the region, with Sinwar being the focal point of blame for the Israelis for the October 7th cross border opeation. However, Sinwar takes the helm during a period of uncertainty on the future of the Middle East as multiple militia groups, namely the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Islamic Republic of Iran blame Israel for the assassination, and all have mentioned that they would retaliate with violence against Israel whilst facing immense pressure from the West for peace talks.
Naeem Jeenah, Senior Researcher at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) and former Executive Director of the Afro-Middle East Centre (AMEC), argues that the instalment of Sinwar is a worse situation for Israel due to his military past.
“I suspect that they’re going to regret the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh for a couple of reasons. One is that Yahya Sinwar is much more militant, and secondly, he’s been appointed as leader at a time when greater militancy is required. And this is a genocide taking place in Gaza. And thirdly, because he’s in Gaza and the one that’s most underground in hiding, conducting negotiations for these rallies, conducting negotiations with Hamas, would be a much, much more painful process and slower process now,” commented Jeenah.
The militant persona of Sinwar has made it seem that the talks of a peace treaty or basic ceasefire would be nigh impossible, but since the death of Haniyeh, speculation has risen by commentators that this would ultimately suit Netanyahu’s agenda, as some theorize that the Prime Minister of Israel is completely against the idea. Naeem concured with these theories by arguing that the present situation benefits the continuity of Netanyahu’s tenure as Israel’s leader:
“Netanyahu certainly doesn’t want the ceasefire unless it can save his bacon, so to speak. Both keep him out of prison, as well as resurrecting his kind of political fortune. None of those seem on the horizon.”
While the future of the Middle East is still being speculated, the impact the speculation is having on international politics cannot be understated, especially with the United States edging closer to its election day, with both parties taking either a stance of outright support for Israel or arguing for peace in the region while holding pro-Israel sentiments.
VOCNews
