Power utility Eskom says South Africans can expect a winter largely free of load shedding — provided unplanned breakdowns remain under control.
However, experts caution that South Africa’s ageing coal fleet remains a fragile component of the power system.
In its winter outlook briefing on Monday (5 May), Eskom Chief Executive Dan Marokane, joined by Eskom executives and Minister of Electricity and Energy Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said a best-case scenario could see zero power cuts, while the worst case, with breakdowns reaching 15,000 MW, would result in a maximum of 21 days of Stage 2 load shedding.
“At worst, if the unplanned losses escalate to 15,000 [MW], we expect to have no more than 21 days of up to Stage Two load shedding,” said Marokane.
“That’s the key message we want to deliver on the back of the performance and the work that we have done through the maintenance season.”
Speaking on VOC’s News Beat, independent energy analyst Clyde Mallinson said the coal fleet’s performance is still a major factor in determining the frequency of load shedding.
“There is no real reason why we should expect load shedding in winter, and even though it is unlikely, they are sailing very close to the wind, so to speak. If something untoward happens, then we will have load shedding,” Mallinson warned.
He added that unplanned outages remain unpredictable and can spiral quickly.
“It’s called ‘unplanned’ because it cannot be capped at a specific number. If there’s an incident where a power station is lost, for example, those are the sort of things that can bring on very rapid and unexpected load shedding.”
Listen to the full interview below:
VOC News
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