The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% when the Monetary Policy Committee delivers its decision on Thursday afternoon.
A majority of economists, 18 out of 26 polled by Reuters, believe the central bank will hold rates steady.
This follows a slight increase in the December 2025 inflation rate to 3.6%, alongside other potential domestic and global risks. Only a small minority of economists are anticipating a 25-basis-point cut.
While inflation remains within the Reserve Bank’s target range, recent price upticks and ongoing global market volatility have prompted policymakers to pause the easing cycle.
Independent economic analyst Professor Bonke Dumisa said the odds currently favour no change to the repo rate.
“Knowing that the South African Reserve Bank loves pushing up the repo rate, under the circumstances, they will keep it unchanged at 6.75%. The only reason why it may be possible for them to surprise us with a repo rate cut, which I doubt will ever happen, is because the governor of the Reserve Bank, Mr Lesetja Kganyago, while he was at the World Economic Forum, hinted at something about phasing out the time of a draft rate,” Dumisa said.
Meanwhile, trade unions are continuing to apply pressure on the Reserve Bank to provide relief to consumers. Cosatu has called for the repo rate to be cut by at least 25 basis points.
Cosatu’s Matthew Parks says workers are battling to keep up with the rising cost of living, with electricity and transport prices increasing at a pace far above the overall inflation rate.
Listen to the full interview with Professor Bonke Dumisa below.
VOC News
Photo: @SAReserveBank/X
