By Ragheema Mclean

With less than 40 days remaining until the 2024 general elections on Wednesday, 29 May 2024, government is urging all eligible South Africans to exercise their right to vote.

This year marks the seventh democratic election since the historic 1994 vote, with millions expected to participate in what some are calling ‘Our 1994’.

Speaking on VOC Breakfast, Political analyst Andre Duvenage from North-West University, described the upcoming elections as the most challenging, competitive, and uncertain since 1994.

He highlighted the likelihood of a political realignment, with indications that the African National Congress (ANC) may not secure an absolute majority, potentially falling below 45% in support.

Duvenage noted the emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK party) as a significant player in the political landscape, impacting the ANC’s traditional support base.

Despite political differences, there is general consensus among parties on key issues facing South Africa, including economic development, unemployment, corruption, poor service delivery, gender-based violence, and crime.

“The major differences come in the way these parties want to address these issues.”

He anticipates complex coalition dynamics, especially in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), where no single party is expected to secure a majority.

In KZN, Duvenage expressed concerns about the potential for conflict and violence, like incidents in 2021 with the July unrest.

He added, “Provincial outcomes are also uncertain, with Limpopo, Northwest, and the Eastern Cape leaning towards the ANC, while Gauteng and KZN are expected to see coalition politics.”

Duvenage highlighted the need for multiple parties to form coalitions in these provinces.

“The situation in the Northern Cape, Free State, and Mpumalanga remains unclear, with the ANC’s support potentially wavering.”

Meanwhile, in the Western Cape, he suggested that while the Democratic Alliance (DA) is likely to maintain a majority, there is a possibility of falling below 50%, requiring collaboration with other parties.

“If we do have a free and fair elections if there’s no extended violence, we are going to see a complicated reconfiguration of the political spectrum not only on a national level but also on a provincial level as well.”

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